IPF Pipeline at Inflection: Nerandomilast and Treprostinil Test Combination-Era Payer Logic Without Survival Data
Clinical Trial Updates

IPF Pipeline at Inflection: Nerandomilast and Treprostinil Test Combination-Era Payer Logic Without Survival Data

Published : 19 Sept 2026

The Overview
A recent GlobalData Healthcare podcast discussed insights from the 2026 European Respiratory Society (ERS) Conference, held September 5–9 in Barcelona, Spain. The discussion highlighted emerging research in pulmonary fibrosis, a field gaining significant momentum. Key updates included findings on Boehringer Ingelheim’s Jascayd (nerandomilast), which are expected to influence treatment and payer decisions, and positive data from United Therapeutics for inhaled treprostinil in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF). The podcast also touched upon signals from clinical trials in chronic cough, an area that has seen previous challenges.
Knolens Analysis

The sharpest verdict: both nerandomilast (Jascayd) and inhaled treprostinil arrive at a commercially decisive moment in IPF with strong FVC-based Phase 3 evidence but without the statistically significant survival endpoints that payers increasingly demand. Nerandomilast, a first-in-class selective PDE4B inhibitor approved by the FDA in October 2025 for both IPF and progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF), demonstrated efficacy in the FIBRONEER-IPF and FIBRONEER-ILD trials — both placebo-controlled Phase 3 RCTs — with efficacy shown both as monotherapy and alongside background pirfenidone or nintedanib. [1][2] Its dual IPF/PPF label and combination compatibility are structural advantages in a field drifting toward multi-pathway regimens, as signaled by the PROGRESSION-IPF trial design. [1][3] However, secondary time-to-event endpoints (survival, hospitalization, exacerbation) were not statistically significant in the FIBRONEER trials, a material gap for HTA value dossiers where mortality and hospitalization carry the highest weight. [3][4] Inhaled treprostinil (United Therapeutics) achieved a statistically significant clinical worsening endpoint in TETON-1 (hazard ratio 0.67; 95% CI 0.52–0.88; P=0.003) — a composite of death, respiratory hospitalization, or ≥10% relative FVC decline — alongside a primary FVC benefit (difference of 130.1 ml; 95% CI 82.2–178.1; P<0.001), with TETON-2 independently replicating the primary endpoint. [5] The clinical worsening result is the single most payer-relevant data point across both assets. Against this, treprostinil's cough rate of 54.8% versus 33.1% placebo and discontinuation rate of 40.5% versus 32.8% placebo represent a tolerability liability that may prompt step-therapy or prior-authorization requirements. [5] No mechanistically matched precedent exists for either asset — nerandomilast as the first PDE4B inhibitor in fibrotic lung disease, and treprostinil as the first prostacyclin analogue in IPF — so the contextual parallel to pirfenidone and nintedanib approvals (FVC endpoint accepted; combination use permitted) is the operative reference, with the mechanistic mismatch explicitly flagged. [1] In chronic cough, camlipixant at ≥50 mg BID achieves −34% cough frequency reduction with 5–7% dysgeusia versus gefapixant's −38.12% with 51% dysgeusia, narrowing the efficacy gap while preserving a commercially decisive tolerability advantage — though the comparison is indirect, derived from a network meta-analysis of 9 RCTs (N=1,934) across placebo-controlled arms, not a head-to-head RCT. [6] The sharpest risk across all three assets: the absence of head-to-head data and the reliance on indirect or placebo-controlled comparisons leaves payer value arguments structurally exposed at HTA.

FIBRONEER-IPF/ILD and TETON-1/2 are Phase 3 RCTs meeting FVC primary endpoints, but secondary time-to-event endpoints were not statistically significant for nerandomilast, and treprostinil's 40.5% discontinuation rate and 54.8% cough incidence create real-world uptake uncertainty despite a significant clinical worsening result. [5]

At a Glance
IndicationIdiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis
DrugNerandomilast
CompanyBoehringer Ingelheim
CategoryClinical Trial Event
Sub CategoryTopline Results Positive
Therapeutic AreaRespiratory
Conference NameEuropean Respiratory Society (ERS) Conference 2026
Conference DatesSeptember 5–9, 2026
Conference LocationBarcelona, Spain
Other Drugs HighlightedInhaled treprostinil, Nintedanib, Pirfenidone
Other Companies HighlightedUnited Therapeutics, Roche
Expert Discussing FindingsConnor Daniels
Publication EditorManasi Vaidya

ERS 2026 Highlights New Pulmonary Fibrosis Research

A recent GlobalData Healthcare podcast discussed insights from the 2026 European Respiratory Society (ERS) Conference, held September 5–9 in Barcelona, Spain. The discussion highlighted emerging research in pulmonary fibrosis, a field gaining significant momentum. Key updates included findings on Boehringer Ingelheim’s Jascayd (nerandomilast), which are expected to influence treatment and payer decisions, and positive data from United Therapeutics for inhaled treprostinil in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF). The podcast also touched upon signals from clinical trials in chronic cough, an area that has seen previous challenges.

  • The 2026 European Respiratory Society (ERS) Conference, which took place from September 5–9 in Barcelona, Spain, served as a crucial platform for showcasing emerging research in the pulmonary fibrosis space. The conference featured in-depth scientific discussions on treatments for both idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF), indicating a renewed focus and increased activity in this therapeutic area.
  • Boehringer Ingelheim’s drug Jascayd (nerandomilast) was a significant highlight at ERS 2026, with new research findings presented. These findings are anticipated to have a substantial impact on future treatment paradigms and payer decisions for patients with pulmonary fibrosis, potentially leading to shifts in clinical practice and market access strategies for the drug.
  • Beyond Boehringer Ingelheim, United Therapeutics also presented positive clinical data for its inhaled treprostinil in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF). This progress in the pulmonary fibrosis field is compared to the significant advancements seen in 2014, when Boehringer Ingelheim’s Ofev (nintedanib) and Roche’s Esbriet (pirfenidone) received approvals, underscoring a period of accelerated development.

Despite meaningful advances in antifibrotic therapy, IPF remains a disease with a poor prognosis and significant unmet need. Approved agents slow progression but do not halt or reverse fibrosis, and a range of clinical, pharmacological, and biological challenges continue to limit their real-world impact.

  • Survival benefit remains limited. In a real-world Japanese cohort of 102 IPF patients receiving antifibrotic drugs, the median survival from therapy initiation was 38.0 months (95% CI: 25.9–50.1 months), underscoring that even with treatment, long-term outcomes remain poor.

  • Adverse event burden threatens treatment continuity. Nintedanib is associated with a high rate of gastrointestinal adverse events — diarrhea was reported in 72.3% of patients in the INBUILD trial — leading to dose reductions and/or treatment interruptions in 48.2% of nintedanib-treated patients. In elderly IPF patients specifically, the incidence of adverse events such as diarrhea, nausea, and elevation of hepatic enzymes is significantly higher, though discontinuation rates were comparable to non-elderly patients when adverse events were actively managed.

  • Dose reduction is common with pirfenidone, though its clinical impact is debated. In a South Korean post-marketing surveillance study of 143 IPF patients, 70.6% experienced at least one dose reduction during 48-week follow-up. While pulmonary function changes and rates of death, hospitalization, and acute exacerbation did not differ significantly across dose groups, the reliance on dose modification reflects the difficulty of maintaining standard therapeutic exposure.

  • Heterogeneous treatment response is not yet addressable in clinical practice. Latent class analysis across two multicenter cohorts (discovery n = 875; validation n = 347) identified two distinct molecular endotypes of IPF with divergent outcomes. Significant heterogeneity in antifibrotic treatment effect was observed between endotypes (P = 0.030 for interaction), with a favorable response in class 2 (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.45–0.93; P = 0.018) but not in class 1 (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.77–1.84; P = 0.422). No precision medicine approach currently exists to stratify patients prospectively.

  • Acute exacerbation remains a poorly controlled and high-mortality event. Corticosteroids remain the primary treatment for acute exacerbation of IPF (AE-IPF), yet dosing and tapering protocols remain controversial, and corticosteroids combined with intravenous cyclophosphamide have been shown to be detrimental to prognosis. While pirfenidone and nintedanib have been shown to reduce the incidence of AE, no intervention has demonstrated clear effectiveness and safety once an exacerbation occurs.

  • The role of GERD management in IPF remains unresolved. GERD prevalence among IPF patients was 65.6% in one ILD clinic study, and GERD-associated microaspiration is hypothesized to accelerate fibrotic progression. Although the international IPF guideline recommends antacid therapy regardless of symptomatic GERD, several national guidelines do not support this recommendation due to conflicting data, leaving clinicians without consensus guidance.

ERS 2026: Jascayd and Inhaled Treprostinil Data

Recent clinical investigation in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) has evaluated a range of interventional strategies, from novel biologics to combination antifibrotic regimens. The studies below highlight key efficacy and safety findings across distinct therapeutic approaches.

  • BG00011 (Anti-αvβ6 Monoclonal Antibody) — Phase IIb Randomized Trial (NCT03573505): 106 patients were randomized 1:1 to once-weekly subcutaneous BG00011 56 mg or placebo. The primary endpoint was FVC change from baseline at Week 52; due to early termination, endpoints were evaluated at Week 26 as an exploratory analysis. There was no significant difference in FVC change from baseline between BG00011 and placebo at Week 26 (least squares mean [SE] −0.097 L [0.0600] vs. −0.056 L [0.0593]; P = 0.268). After Week 26, patients in the BG00011 group showed a worsening trend; 8 (44.4%) of 18 BG00011 patients versus 4 (18.2%) of 22 placebo patients showed worsening of fibrosis on high-resolution computed tomography. IPF exacerbation/progression was reported in 13 patients, all in the BG00011 group. Serious adverse events occurred more frequently in BG00011 patients, including four deaths. The results do not support continued clinical development of BG00011.

  • Vismodegib plus Pirfenidone — Phase 1b Open-Label Trial (NCT02648048): 21 patients with IPF received vismodegib 150 mg plus pirfenidone 2403 mg/day. All patients reported at least one treatment-emergent adverse event, most frequently muscle spasms (76.2%). Serious adverse events were reported in 14.3% of patients; one event of dehydration was considered related to vismodegib. One patient died due to IPF progression, unrelated to either treatment. More patients discontinued vismodegib than pirfenidone (42.9% vs. 33.3%, respectively). Changes from baseline to Week 24 in % predicted FVC and UCSD-SOBQ scores were within known endpoint variability. Vismodegib had no effect on circulating CXCL14 levels. The safety profile was consistent with the known profiles of both drugs, with no new safety signals observed.

  • Nintedanib — Global Pharmacovigilance Analysis (2014–2018): Across an estimated cumulative exposure of 60,107 patient-years, diarrhea was the most frequent adverse event (301.6 events per 1,000 patient-years), with 97.0% of diarrhea events classified as non-serious; median time to first diarrhea event was 60 (25th, 75th percentile: 11, 182) days. Elevated liver enzyme or bilirubin levels were reported at 31.5 events per 1,000 patient-years. Bleeding occurred at 36.8 events per 1,000 patient-years (81.0% non-serious). Major cardiovascular adverse events were reported at 13.4 events per 1,000 patient-years, myocardial infarction at 4.3 events per 1,000 patient-years, and gastrointestinal perforation at 1.0 event per 1,000 patient-years. The safety profile was consistent with clinical trial data and the product label, with no new safety concerns identified.

Assessing Jascayd and Treprostinil in the IPF Landscape

Bexotegrast (PLN-74809), an investigational oral integrin inhibitor, has been evaluated alongside standard-of-care IPF therapies — pirfenidone and nintedanib — in the INTEGRIS-IPF Phase 2a trial, offering a direct comparative context. Both approved agents and the investigational compound have been assessed on FVC decline, tolerability, and survival-relevant endpoints across multiple published studies.

Therapy Study Type Key Efficacy Finding Key Safety/Tolerability Finding
Pirfenidone NMA of 10 RCTs (12-month duration) OR = 0.54 (95% CI: 0.37–0.80) for FVC decline ≥10%; NNTB = 9 (95% CI: 7–22) No significant difference vs. nintedanib in dropouts (OR = 0.75 [95% CI: 0.33–1.27])
Nintedanib NMA of 10 RCTs (12-month duration) OR = 0.59 (95% CI: 0.41–0.84) for FVC decline ≥10%; NNTB = 9 (95% CI: 6–23) Dropouts OR = 1.61 (95% CI: 1.13–2.28); NNTH = 14 (95% CI: 8–61)
Nintedanib (pooled trials) Pooled data from 6 clinical trials; mean treatment duration 28 months Estimated mean survival 11.6 years (95% CI: 9.6–14.1) in nintedanib-treated vs. 3.7 years (95% CI: 2.5–5.4) in placebo-treated patients Diarrhoea rate 76.5 events per 100 patient exposure-years; permanent discontinuation due to diarrhoea 3.6 events per 100 patient exposure-years; no new safety signals
Nintedanib (iPPFE subgroup) Retrospective study; 15 iPPFE and 27 IPF patients In IPF: annual FVC decline significantly lower during treatment (−2.01%/year) vs. before treatment (−7.64%/year; p = 0.031); in iPPFE: FVC decline higher during treatment (−18.0%/year) vs. before (−9.40%/year; p = 0.109) Nintedanib efficacy may be limited in patients with iPPFE
Bexotegrast (PLN-74809) Phase 2a (INTEGRIS-IPF); doses 40 mg, 80 mg, 160 mg, 320 mg once daily; with or without background pirfenidone or nintedanib; ≥12 weeks Reduction in FVC decline vs. placebo over 12 weeks; dose-dependent antifibrotic effect per QLF imaging; decrease in fibrosis-associated biomarkers vs. placebo TEAEs in 62/89 (69.7%) bexotegrast vs. 21/31 (67.7%) placebo; diarrhoea most common TEAE, predominantly in those also receiving nintedanib

ERS Insights: Reshaping Treatment for Fibrotic Lung Diseases and Chronic Cough

The recent European Respiratory Society (ERS) Conference has illuminated critical advancements and ongoing challenges across the landscape of severe lung diseases, offering a glimpse into future therapeutic strategies. For patients battling progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), the data surrounding Boehringer Ingelheim's nerandomilast (Jascayd) is particularly compelling. Studies indicate that nerandomilast not only reduces the decline in forced vital capacity but also significantly lowers the risk of adverse clinical outcomes, including death, in PPF patients. This is a substantial development, especially for those not currently on existing antifibrotic treatments, suggesting a potential new standard of care. However, the literature also points to a nuanced efficacy profile when nerandomilast is co-administered with nintedanib, implying that its optimal positioning within the treatment algorithm—either as monotherapy or in specific combination regimens—will be crucial for market adoption.

In parallel, United Therapeutics' inhaled treprostinil, particularly its dry powder inhaler (DPI) formulation, is gaining traction. While primarily established for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), its utility in pulmonary hypertension associated with interstitial lung disease (PH-ILD), a common comorbidity in IPF, is increasingly recognized. The convenience and improved patient satisfaction associated with the DPI formulation could significantly enhance adherence and broaden its use, offering a more accessible option for managing this complex condition. This represents a strategic advantage in a market where patient quality of life and ease of administration are paramount.

Finally, the chronic cough space, long plagued by limited effective and tolerable treatments, is seeing renewed interest. While earlier P2X3 receptor antagonists like gefapixant faced hurdles, particularly with taste disturbances and mixed efficacy in specific populations like IPF-related cough, the ongoing development of more selective agents in this class offers hope. The challenge remains to deliver robust antitussive effects without the significant taste-related adverse events that have historically impacted patient adherence. Future success in this area will hinge on balancing efficacy with a superior tolerability profile, potentially unlocking a much-needed therapeutic option for millions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the life expectancy of someone with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis?
The median life expectancy for individuals diagnosed with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is typically 3 to 5 years from the time of diagnosis. This reflects the progressive and irreversible nature of the disease, leading to relentless lung scarring and impaired respiratory function. While antifibrotic therapies can slow disease progression, they do not cure IPF, and survival rates can vary based on factors such as disease severity, rate of decline, and comorbidities.
Is nerandomilast better than nintedanib?
Nintedanib is an approved tyrosine kinase inhibitor for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and other progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases, demonstrating efficacy in slowing disease progression. Nerandomilast is an investigational oral selective phosphodiesterase 4 (PDE4) inhibitor currently in clinical development for IPF. Direct comparative data demonstrating superiority of nerandomilast over nintedanib is not yet available, as nerandomilast's efficacy and safety profile are still being established in ongoing trials. Therefore, a definitive statement on whether one is "better" than the other cannot be made at this time.
What is the newest treatment for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis?
Pirfenidone and nintedanib remain the only FDA-approved antifibrotic treatments for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. While numerous investigational therapies are in clinical development, no new treatments have received regulatory approval beyond these two in recent years.
What is the standard of care for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in adults?
The current standard of care for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in adults primarily involves pharmacologic therapy with antifibrotic agents. Pirfenidone and nintedanib are the two FDA-approved drugs that slow disease progression by reducing the rate of decline in lung function. Additionally, supportive care, including oxygen therapy, pulmonary rehabilitation, and management of comorbidities, is crucial, and lung transplantation may be considered for eligible patients.
Can you live longer than 5 years with IPF?
While the historical median survival for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) has often been cited as 3-5 years post-diagnosis, a significant proportion of patients do live longer than five years. The advent of antifibrotic therapies has demonstrably slowed disease progression, contributing to improved survival outcomes for many individuals. Prognosis is highly variable, influenced by factors such as disease severity at presentation, rate of decline, age, comorbidities, and timely access to treatment.
What are the management guidelines for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis?
Current international guidelines recommend antifibrotic therapies, pirfenidone or nintedanib, as standard of care to slow disease progression in eligible patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Supportive care is crucial, encompassing oxygen therapy, pulmonary rehabilitation, symptom management, and vaccinations. Lung transplantation is a viable option for select patients, while palliative care plays an increasingly important role as the disease progresses.

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